Will you be eliminated by the times in 2020?

By: VictorZo Jan. 02,2020

The world-famous McKinsey consulting company has predicted the global labor market changes in the next ten years. It is estimated that by 2030, there will be more than 800 occupations in 46 countries around the world. To replace. What is this number? This is equivalent to one in every five people working in the world today.

This is not alarmist, it is just a repeat of history. Since the Industrial Revolution, the story of man being replaced by a machine has been repeated all over the world. Every time new technology and new technology emerge, while the productivity increases, the old productivity—people, will be eliminated to a certain extent.

As early as the 18th century, when an ordinary textile worker invented an efficient weaving machine, a group of thugs stormed into his home, smashed the machine, and set fire to his home. However, history has not been rewritten. The inventor finally opened a textile mill in the field, "Spinning Jenny", a well-known machine in history, which opened the prelude to workers being replaced by machines.

Decades later, a large number of unemployed workers smashed machines and used violent means to fight against business owners. From the beginning of the workers' movement, the development of industrial technology did not stop there. Machines have created more wealth for society, and after industrialization began, more people lost their jobs.

Today, with the rapid development of the Internet and technology, such things happen every day around us. Telephone operators, printers, bus conductors, telegraphers, etc., many professions have become historical terms. At the same time, under the impact of online shopping, various physical stores have also been greatly affected.

Kodak film was defeated by digital cameras, and the market for instant noodles shrank severely. After the emergence of Didi and bike sharing, taxi business was also affected. In this era, you may still be the boss of the industry today, and tomorrow your industry may be replaced by other industries.

So in 2020, will you be eliminated by the times? Do you have the confidence not to be eliminated by the times? What kind of people will be replaced?

Technology does not mean safety

When Kodak collapsed, its film was also the best in the world. The Zhangqiu iron pot was popular last year. No matter how good the craftsmanship made by the master is, this technique is outdated. In the past thinking, when there is technology, there is an iron rice bowl, and you are not afraid wherever you go. This statement was true decades ago, because the technology update was slow at that time. Now, a technology may become obsolete in a few years, and may be replaced by new technology without becoming obsolete.

Therefore, many highly-educated technical staff continue to learn every day after work. The pace of the times is too fast. Those who cannot keep up and those with narrow vision may be eliminated.

Making more money does not mean long-term

Many jobs that used to make money have disappeared. Some of the work that everyone is rushing to do is now reduced to the bottom. An industry may make money at some point, but it is difficult to make money all the time. And those who enter the game when they see others make money often don't eat much dividends, and they experience the decline of the industry.

Department store salespersons have been envied by many people in the past. High salaries and high status, some old literary and artistic works have described the salesman's high-spirited attitude. Today, salespeople are almost history. Large supermarkets and stores, many with only a small amount of shopping guides and cashiers, and even checkout are now popular self-service.

Low-end reproducible work is the most dangerous


Robot writing is no longer a scientific idea. China Earthquake Network's breaking news is now automatically compiled by the machine. Some more complicated news stories have already been implemented by computers. In the era of rapid development of AI technology, it is only a matter of time before low-end text work is replaced by machines.

Even creative text work has been challenged by technology. Under the analysis of big data, machines can better understand the audience's preferences than people. The best example is today's headline. In fact, the machine is directing people to write. It is foreseeable that in the future creation, the reduction of human voice is certain.

Human work will become more complicated

A single job is the easiest to be replaced by a machine. In the past, people can't count it in a few days. The computer can do it in a few seconds. The work of man will become the management of the machine and the decision of the results of the machine. Because no matter how technology develops, computers are always tools for people. And if a person wants to be replaced by a machine, he has to get rid of the identity of the tool and become the person who manages the machine.

Workers are no longer parts that repeat an action on the assembly line, and machines that coordinate multiple systems are likely to need to complete a set of actions. Cashiers are no longer simply collecting money, but processing various orders online and offline, supervising distribution and shipping, and so on. Can not be competent in complex work environments, but also thinking of doing simple and repetitive work, is bound to fail. Even the uncle sweeping the train station, some have started to operate cleaning cars!

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