Blind box economy: Why are we crazy about a small doll?

1. Why can blind boxes make people buy "out of control"?

Remember Christmas 2023? The POP MART store in Westfield Mall in London was packed with people, and some people even knocked the shelves crooked in order to grab the last Labubu. What's even more exaggerated is that Harrods actually sold the Labubu "Midnight Rose" model for 199 pounds (almost 1,800 yuan) and put it together with Hermès scarves - this is not selling toys, it is clearly selling "social status"!

But do you know? Behind this "crazy rush" lies the secret of the brain. Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the human brain responds 45% stronger to "uncertain rewards" than "certain rewards." Just like when we open a blind box, we can never guess what's inside. This sense of mystery will make the brain secrete a lot of dopamine, just as exciting as betting when gambling. Especially for young people, many people save their meal money to buy blind boxes, and even go into debt. This is not just "impulsive consumption", but the brain is "tricked" by commercial design.

2. How do blind boxes "precisely control" your senses?

(1) Touch and look, and the brain is "hooked"

Do you like to "pinch the box" when you open the blind box? In fact, this is deliberately designed by the merchant! The surface roughness of POP MART's boxes is controlled at 200-300μm (almost the texture of sandpaper). This value can make the finger nerves "excited" 15-20 times per second, which just meets the frequency of "pleasant touch" that the brain likes. The moment of unpacking the box is more exquisite: Labubu's iconic fluorescent purple is more "eye-catching" than ordinary colors (professionally called ΔE value, reaching 18.7, ordinary colors are only 8-12), which can make the visual cortex "light up" instantly, just like seeing a flash.

For example, the box of the Labubu "Tearing Bear" is made of distressed denim texture. When the box is opened, there is a "sizzling" sound (4000Hz, the sound frequency that the human ear is most sensitive to), and the blood-red lining directly causes the activation of the brain's "fear pleasure zone" (amygdala) to soar by 41% - no wonder some people say that opening a blind box is like "disarming a bomb", which is both scary and exciting!

(2) The trap of "almost winning"

The probability of the hidden version is 1:72, which sounds like "buying 72 boxes will definitely win", but in fact the probability of winning if you buy 12 boxes is only 16.67%. But why do we always feel that "the next one will definitely be"? Because the brain is particularly sensitive to "almost": when you know that "you are only one box away from collecting all the items", the brain's "expectation zone" (nucleus accumbens) will continue to be excited for 2.3 seconds. This feeling is exactly the same as "losing 3 times in a row and suddenly winning" in a casino. Experiments show that after opening a blind box 10 times in a row, dopamine secretion will be 58% less than the first time, so we will buy more and more, and try hard to regain the "pleasure" of the first time.

(3) The way Easterners and Westerners become "addicted" is different

Chinese people are more likely to fall into the trap of "the more you buy, the better the deal." Brain science has found that although our prefrontal cortex is more active (that is, more "rational"), our ability to control emotions is weaker. For example, a player spent 170,000 yuan to collect the 2019 "Forest Concert" series, which is equivalent to 3.2 months' salary! Westerners are more likely to "show off their orders" because their brains are more sensitive to "social likes." A hidden Labubu can increase their interaction on social media by 214%.

3. How do blind boxes turn "consumption" into "social currency"?

(1) What you buy is not a toy, but an "identity label"

In Seoul, young people changed Labubu into a "lying dragon" with sunglasses on, which became a symbol of resistance to the "four-abandonment generation" (abandoning houses, marriages, children, and pets). In London, artists even replaced Labubu's head with Prime Minister Boris Johnson's face as a tool for political satire. As a result, the price of this Labubu increased by 400%. Now the number of male players has increased from 12% to 39%. Alex, a 32-year-old financial man, put the "skeleton engineer" Labubu on his desk, saying that this is an "anti-involution declaration" - the small doll has become a "social code" for young people to express their attitudes.

(2) "Unboxing ceremony" on TikTok

Have you ever seen a video of "listening to the box to identify hidden models"? Blogger "Blind Box Detective Alice" disassembled the shaking box into "three shakes and two listens": first shake horizontally (2Hz frequency) to listen to the sound of parts, then knock on the bottom of the box to listen to the echo, and even use an APP to analyze the vibration waveform. This "pseudoscience" has become "box opening Zen" in Japan. Kyoto coffee shops set the rule of "meditation for 10 minutes before opening the box"; but in London, too many imitators caused the shelves to collapse. 17 accidents occurred in January 2024 - the same behavior is so different in different cultures.

4. How deep is POP MART's "business routine"?

(1) Your "creativity" is used to make money

The WeChat applet "Labubu Inspiration Library" collected 230,000 user ideas. 38% of people like "dark fairy tales", so there is "Labubu, the Queen of Hearts" (the image of a sickly girl holding a playing card dagger). AI analyzed 470,000 comments and found that everyone likes "anxious companionship", so Labubu has expressions such as "crying with head in hand" and "curling up and trembling", and sales directly increased by 27% - it turns out that our "complaints" have long been turned into "money-making codes" by merchants.

(2) The store design is like a "casino"

Have you noticed the lighting of POP MART? During the day, cold white light (4000K) is used, which makes people "calm" like an office and attracts rational collectors; at night, it is changed to warm yellow light (3000K), which makes people relax like a candlelight dinner, and the impulse consumption rate directly increases by 28%. The robot store is more "scheming": when you don't draw a hidden model, it will play 18Hz low-frequency sound waves (which are inaudible to humans but can be transmitted to the brain through bones), which will make you feel anxious unconsciously and can't help but buy a few more boxes - this trick is exactly the same as the "losing money reminder sound" in the casino.

5. The "ethical crisis" behind blind boxes

(1) Is it "destroying" the brains of teenagers?

Cambridge University tracked and found that junior high school students who opened blind boxes more than 3 times a week had a 18% slower development of the frontal lobe of their brains than their peers, making it more difficult for them to understand that "1:72 probability ≠ buying 72 boxes will definitely win" (only 9% can understand it, while ordinary children have 37%). A survey conducted at a middle school in Shenzhen found that 73% of students believed that "winning a hidden item is a reward for hard work" and regarded random probability as the "result of hard work" - this is all caused by the merchants' propaganda that "luck = good character".

(2) The "gray area" of science and technology ethics

POP MART collects 2 million pieces of unboxing data (such as strength and dwell time) every day. These data may be used to "predict" your consumption habits, but the current law does not stipulate how to protect these "brain behavior data". Even more terrifying is subconscious manipulation: although 18Hz sound waves cannot be heard, they can activate the "anxiety zone" of the brain. This is the same as brain stimulation experiments in medicine, but the latter require strict ethical review, while blind boxes can be used casually.

(3) How to "save" the out-of-control blind box economy?

Japan has included the "brain reward system" in middle school courses, using VR to simulate dopamine decay, allowing students to see the "addiction" process with their own eyes; Singapore uses "blind box mathematics" teaching aids to allow students to understand probability through games. In terms of supervision, the EU recommends that blind boxes be classified into two categories: ordinary (probability ≥ 1/12) and collectible (only available to those over 18 years old), and a "cooling-off period" should be set - if 5 boxes are opened in a row, the account will be locked for half an hour.

POP MART itself is also changing: in 2024, a "historical blind box" will be launched. After opening the box, you need to answer 3 historical questions correctly to unlock the hidden card, turning consumption into "learning knowledge"; there is also a "dual-mode box opening", and the education mode can display the dopamine curve in real time, allowing you to see how "addicted" you are.

6. Future: Will blind boxes become "friends of the brain"?

The essence of blind boxes is the "scientific use" of the human nature of "liking surprises" by merchants. It can make people happy, but it can also make people lose control. The key lies in how to balance business innovation and ethical bottom line. In the future, there may be "educational blind boxes", such as triggering historical memories through smell when opening the box, or using VR to simulate archaeological excavations - making consumption "brain growth" instead of "dopamine trap".

As neuroscientists said: "The brain is not a wheat field to be harvested, but a garden to be cultivated." Maybe one day, we can truly enjoy the fun of blind boxes without being controlled by them - this is the best relationship between business and humanity.