Trump has received bad news: India's decision.

Reports indicate that Trump has wielded the "tariff stick" against India, even personally calling Modi several times. Instead of yielding, he received a genuine diplomatic cold war—none of his four calls were answered.

Even more embarrassingly, just as the US government implemented its policy of imposing an additional 25% tariff on India, Reuters broke a bombshell: three traders involved in oil sales to India revealed that India, far from halting its purchases of Russian oil, plans to increase imports by another 10% to 20% in September compared to August, equivalent to an additional 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day.

This news plunged global markets and US policymakers into a state of panic and helplessness. Clearly, the US wants to indirectly pressure Russia through sanctions on India, but it can't bring itself to act against China and has high hopes for India.

Who is really hurt by this wave of US tariffs on India?

Indian exporters are feeling the effects most acutely. Textiles and apparel, jewelry, shrimp, carpets, and furniture—these pillars of India's exports—have seen high tariffs of 50% slash profit margins by a significant amount. Industry associations have warned of a significant loss of market share, disrupted supply chains, and the potential loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs. Yet, the Indian government remains unfazed and is accelerating tariff reductions on raw material imports, promoting diversified export markets, and prioritizing the interests of domestic farmers and small businesses.

Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar publicly stated that trade negotiations are ongoing, but that "there are bottom lines that must be adhered to," and that India's national interests are paramount. The Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas simply stated that India's energy import sources have expanded from 27 to 40, that strategic reserves can last 74 days, and that refineries can process a wide range of crude oil. Even if the proportion of Russian oil in India were to be adjusted, it wouldn't be something the US could decide on a single word.

Why is India so daring to withstand US pressure?

The key is a single word: profit.

Russian oil offers excellent value for money. The Ukrainian attack damaged Russian refinery capacity, forcing Russia to lower prices. Urals crude oil shipped in September is selling for $2 to $3 per barrel cheaper than benchmark Brent crude, a larger discount than the $1.50 per barrel in August.

For India, this deal is a steal. Russia currently meets approximately 40% of India's oil needs, importing 1.5 million barrels per day, representing 1.5% of global demand. Rosneft's price advantage allows India to save significant foreign exchange annually while also stabilizing domestic energy supply and inflation. It's a surefire win.

Of course, India isn't putting all its eggs in one basket. The Middle East accounts for 46% of its imports, with a diverse presence in the Americas, Africa, and Central Asia. To mitigate risks in the Strait of Hormuz, India has also increased imports from the United States, Canada, Colombia, Nigeria, Angola, and other countries. In the first four months of 2025 alone, oil imports from the United States increased to 6.31 million tons, accounting for 7% of total imports and a 66.7% year-on-year increase. However, these efforts can only patch the loopholes and cannot replace Rosneft's strategic position. The Indian government understands that only by maximizing diversification can it achieve greater energy security.

This explains Modi's assertiveness. Faced with multiple pressures, including high US tariffs, EU price caps, and a fragmented supply chain, India chose not to back down but instead resisted pressure and continued to purchase Russian oil. This was driven both by economic interests and a display of strategic sovereignty. Indian officials have made it clear that energy purchases are solely based on national interests and are unaffected by external pressure. As long as Russian oil remains cheap, stable, and readily available, India will not compromise its own strength. The US's attempt to target India has only put itself in a new dilemma.

In this game, Trump lost face and confidence. India has demonstrated through its actions that global powers are not to be manipulated by anyone. Energy security, industrial chain security, and national interests are the most powerful bargaining chips. When the US's "tariff stick" meets India's "oil barrel calculation," it becomes clear which one can withstand the pressure of reality. This time, India not only refused to give the United States face, but also seized the initiative on the global energy chessboard. Americans may be anxious, but facing reality, they can only feel helpless and "blame themselves for bad luck."